EIA raises 2027 U.S. gasoline and diesel price forecasts, reflecting the possibility of prolonged refined oil supply tightness

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for US gasoline and diesel retail prices in 2027 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The diesel price forecast was increased by 12% compared to last month, while gasoline was raised by 5%. The EIA expects that supply constraints in the global oil products market will persist until the end of 2027, with refined product crack spreads likely to remain at elevated levels, driving US refineries to maintain high operating rates. Meanwhile, the EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will remain around $100 per barrel for the remainder of this year. As global inventories gradually recover, the average price is expected to fall back to $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.