Core CPI Becomes a Key Variable as Waller's 50-Basis-Point Warning Faces a Test

Bitget

News

智通财经2026/11/10 13:36

Show original

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

There was a sharp curve-flattening trade in the US Treasury market overnight after Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that if October's core CPI month-on-month increase repeats September's 0.3% or even surpasses it, a 50-basis-point rate hike could be considered in December.
The short end bore the main selling pressure, with the 2-year yield reaching 4.62%, while the long end remained relatively stable as crude oil fell back to around $83.
In his speech, Waller stated that if core CPI rises again by about 0.3% or higher, it would justify considering a 50-basis-point rate hike at the December 9 meeting; only raising rates by 25 basis points could risk the Fed's credibility.
Waller’s baseline scenario is still a 25-basis-point hike as inflation moderates, while Cleveland Fed President Mester also advocates moving toward a more restrictive stance via smaller and more frequent adjustments.
The market widely expects the core CPI to slow from September's 0.3% to 0.2%, with forecasts clustering around 0.23%, but tariff-related goods inflation, housing pressures, and super-core services still leave room for upside surprises.
Some believe the difference between 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4% could determine whether the aggressive overnight curve-flattening trade is unwound or gains momentum, driving a larger repricing of Fed expectations for December.
The pullback in crude oil reflects market optimism regarding progress in US-Iran negotiations following Trump’s tariff remarks, but institutions remain cautious, noting Tehran's motivations and the continuing threat to Gulf shipping lanes.
Institutions maintain their view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will fluctuate in the 4.85% to 4.95% range, tactically favoring trades between 5.05% and 4.80%, with around 4.81% as a tactical sell zone and above 5% as a strategic buy zone.
The October CPI report will be released on Tuesday, with several Fed officials scheduled to speak, including Waller, Dallas Fed President Logan, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

Core CPI Becomes a Key Variable as Waller's 50-Basis-Point Warning Faces a Test

You may also like

Crypto prices