The US dollar stabilizes amid fluctuations as markets focus on US CPI

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智通财经2026/11/10 03:36

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After several days of fluctuations, the US dollar found support during Tuesday's Asian session, with the US Dollar Index currently trading around 101.68. Last Friday, it surged 0.7% on robust non-farm payroll data, but on Monday it retreated 0.6% due to falling oil prices and a rally in overnight equities, highlighting volatile market sentiment. Traders are awaiting US inflation data. If the CPI strengthens expectations of rate hikes, it could push the dollar higher.
The market holds a net long position in the US dollar, and the Dollar Index has risen this year. The war in Iran has pushed up energy prices and fueled inflation, rapidly shifting US rate expectations from cuts to hike bets. Last Friday, the US October employment report far exceeded expectations, with new job additions more than double forecasts, causing markets to price an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike next month.
Surveys expect overall US inflation rate in October to rise to 3.9%, and core inflation to 2.8%. However, this report will lack year-on-year CPI and core CPI data, as the US government shutdown in October 2025 prevented staff from collecting price data that month, resulting in a lack of reference for this year. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot calculate annual data, leaving the market with only month-on-month data to assess inflation trends. Economists forecast that US CPI in October 2026 will rise 0.3% month-on-month, and core CPI will rise 0.2%, both at a slower pace.
If actual data comes in higher than forecast, it will intensify rate hike expectations and may push the US dollar higher. Imre Speizer, strategist at Westpac, noted that December rate hike pricing can only be slightly raised, but expectations for rate hikes in future meetings could go higher.
Macquarie strategists said that the recent sweeping victory of the Democratic Party in Congress elections has raised concerns about tighter AI regulation, causing sharp fluctuations in AI stocks and slightly impacting the outlook for US rate hikes. This could become one of the factors dragging on US economic growth in 2027 and may push the dollar to its peak.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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The US dollar stabilizes amid fluctuations as markets focus on US CPI

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