Fidelity's Timmer Doubts 60/40 Revival as Stock-Bond Correlation Slips

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, doubts the 60/40 portfolio is back. His chart shows the five-year stock-bond correlation still above zero at current Treasury yields. The 60/40 portfolio, which holds 60% stocks and 40% bonds, relies on bonds rising when equities fall. Falling correlation looks favorable, yet Timmer argues higher yields keep the two moving together. As a result, 60/40 holders could have less cover. How Does Yield Level Shape the Stock-Bond Correlation? Timmers chart tracks how closely the SP 500 and long-dated Treasuries have moved over five years. In 2013 and 2020, when yields were extremely low, the reading sank deep into negative territory. It turned positive as yields climbed. The latest reading sits between 10% and 12%, based on data through November 2. Below I highlighted a few cycles where the shorter-term correlation went down or even turned negative while the structural correlation regime was positive. The LTCM growth scare and the tariff tantrum come to mind, as well the dot com bust. With the stocks/bonds correlation coming down, does that mean the 60/40 paradigm is back? I have my doubts. However, shorter 13-week readings fell or turned negative in the 1998 growth scare tied to hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). They did so again in the dot-com bust and the 2025 tariff tantrum, Timmers label for that years selloff. The five-year regime stayed positive in each case. Are Bonds Only a Hedge When Growth Scares Hit? Recent trading fits that pattern. Treasuries rallied during Octobers AI stock selloff. The 10-year yield closed below 5% on October 22, its first time since September 22. In contrast, Ariel Investments vice chairman Charlie Bobrinskoy argues bonds are worth buying with the 10-year yielding about 5%. Still, inflation is the swing factor. Timmer told Morningstar in 2023 that long-run price pressures decide whether bonds can protect a 60/40 mix. Timmers alternative is a 60/20/20 mix. In a May 2025 Fidelity note, he put alternatives, gold, Bitcoin (BTC), and cash in the final 20%. Read the article at BeInCrypto