Intel Shares Plunge 23% After Earnings
On October 29, Intel (
INTC) closed regular trading at $92.07, down 3.62%, before plunging to approximately $70.86 in after-hours trading following its earnings release, a decline of 23%. The stock had previously gained nearly 150% year to date but had already retreated from around $120 during October. Third-quarter revenue reached $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS rose to $0.52 from $0.23 a year earlier. Adjusted gross margin also improved to 44.1%. These results demonstrated meaningful operational improvement but failed to offset investors' disappointment with the outlook for the coming quarter. Much of the anticipated recovery had already been priced into the stock.
Data Center and AI Revenue Jumps 78%, but Q4 Guidance Falls Far Short
Revenue from Intel's Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment reached $7.3 billion, up 78% year over year, supported by growing demand for Xeon server CPUs as cloud providers expand AI infrastructure. However, the segment also includes conventional server products, meaning its entire growth cannot be attributed to AI accelerator sales. Meanwhile, Client Computing and Physical AI revenue declined 5% to $8.1 billion. Rising memory prices are increasing PC manufacturing costs, and Intel expects weakness in the PC market to potentially persist into the first half of 2027.
The more immediate concern came from fourth-quarter guidance. Intel projected revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, with a midpoint of $15.5 billion, well below analysts' expectations of $17.07 billion. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.25 also missed the $0.43 consensus estimate, while adjusted gross margin is expected to decline from 44.1% to 38%. An incident at Intel's Israeli manufacturing facility is expected to reduce revenue by approximately $600 million over the next two quarters, limiting the company's ability to fulfill strong customer orders. Although Intel Foundry revenue increased 58% to $6.7 billion, the figure includes substantial internal transactions, while the segment still recorded an operating loss of $1.85 billion. Intel expects approximately $20 billion in manufacturing investments this year, and management has indicated that cash flow is unlikely to turn positive in 2026.
After-Hours Selloff Takes Intel Below Its 200-Day Moving Average and Recent Low
Intel's technical picture had already weakened before the earnings announcement. Its October 29 closing price of $92.07 was below the 20-day moving average of $99.07 and the 50-day moving average of $101.63, although it remained above the 200-day moving average of $86.78. The October 22 intraday low of $84.65 represented another important reference level. Regular-session trading volume on October 29 reached approximately 134 million shares, about 36% above the 20-day average of 98 million, indicating a notable increase in trading activity.
As of the regular-session close, the 14-day
RSI stood near 41.5, while the MACD line remained below zero, indicating weak momentum. The subsequent after-hours decline toward $71 pushed the stock below both the $84.65 recent low and the $86.78 200-day moving average. If the stock fails to recover these levels during the next regular session, the selloff would establish a significant downside price gap. However, these moving averages and momentum indicators have not yet incorporated the after-hours plunge, so they cannot be used to conclude that the stock has entered a new oversold condition.
Watch Whether $70 Holds, Then Look for Resistance Around $85
The $70 psychological level and the after-hours trading area near $71 form the first zone to monitor, but confirmation must come during the October 30 regular session. If the stock recovers $70 after an initial decline and holds that level on a lower-volume retest, it could provide an early indication of stabilization. Any subsequent rebound would also require confirmation from stronger buying volume. Conversely, a high-volume break below $70 followed by sustained trading beneath that level would invalidate the initial support scenario, making it necessary to wait for a new low and trading range to develop.
On the upside, the $84.65–$86.78 area combines the recent low with the 200-day moving average, making it the first major resistance zone for a potential recovery. If the stock approaches this range and reverses lower, the move would remain a weak technical rebound. Only a convincing, volume-supported recovery above this zone, followed by a successful retest, would open the possibility of challenging the pre-earnings closing price of $92.07.
2026/10/30 07:36
