Taiwan Dollar: Recovery still needs foreign inflows – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness persists despite strong exports, as foreign equity outflows and unsettled global tech sentiment dominate USD/TWD. Wong stays cautious near term, highlighting the need for improved equity flows for a more durable TWD recovery and flagging technical overbought conditions with nearby support and resistance levels guiding price action.

TWD pressured by equity outflows

"TWD remained under pressure last week as foreign equity selling continued (Week-to-date USD7.6bn) amid unsettled global technology sentiment."

"The CBC attributed the currency’s weakness to substantial foreign fund outflows and dividendrelated remittances, while reiterating its willingness to maintain orderly FX conditions. This contrasted with strong September export orders, which surged 62.4% YoY, highlighting the disconnect between Taiwan’s resilient external sector and portfolio flows."

"We remain cautious on TWD near term. While CBC smoothing may help contain excessive volatility, sustained recovery would likely require foreign equity selling to moderate."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. We continue to keep a lookout for signs of technical turnaround."

"Support at 32.35 (23.6% fibo), 32.13 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 32.70 (recent high)"