Canadian Retail Sales Rebound, Signaling Stronger Consumer Spending in Q3, CIBC Says

09:04 AM EDT, 10/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian retail sales rose 1.2% on the month in August, recovering across all nine subsectors and pointing to stronger consumer spending in the third quarter, according to CIBC Economics in a Friday note. Although the increase was slightly below the 1.3% consensus forecast, motor vehicle dealerships led the rebound, while core retail sales, excluding gasoline and automobiles, climbed 1.1%, with gains across categories, wrote CIBC in the note. Retail sales volumes climbed 1.2% monthly in August, confirming that the rebound extended beyond price increases, said the bank. Statistics Canada's advance estimate suggests sales rose a further 0.7% on the month in September, although higher prices are expected to explain much of the increase, added CIBC. Even so, real retail sales could grow at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, compared with 1.4% in the second quarter, indicating a pickup in Canadian consumer spending, according to the bank.