Brent crude oil surged this year, with prices showing a rare decoupling from Persian Gulf flows.

⑴ Brent crude oil futures for the near month have risen by about 90% compared to early 2026, but oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to pre-war levels.⑵ Since the outbreak of the war, there has not been such a significant decoupling between price and volume, indicating that a considerable risk premium has already been priced into current oil prices.⑶ Attention should be paid to whether the risk premium can be sustained; if geopolitical tensions ease or expectations of supply disruptions cool, the divergence between oil prices and physical flows may converge, and prices could face the risk of giving back the premium.