Bank of England: November hike added as UK inflation stays firm – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that UK headline CPI rose to 3.5% year-on-year in September, with core and services inflation also edging higher and exceeding Bank of England projections. On the back of stronger inflation and resilient activity, the bank now expects a BoE rate hike in November to reinforce inflation-targeting credibility.

Higher CPI prompts forecast revision

"In the UK, September CPI inflation rose to 3.5% y/y from 3.1%, core inflation to 2.8% from 2.6% and services inflation to 3.7% from 3.4%."

"Slightly higher than consensus and above the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast."

"We are adjusting our BoE forecast to include a rate hike in November, as inflation concerns have risen and growth has strengthened."

"Activity has proven more resilient than expected in recent months and the labour market is showing signs of stabilisation."

"We believe the BoE will act to contain inflation risks and prioritise the credibility of its inflation target."