British Pound: BoE hike prospects underpin resilience – MUFG

Lee Hardman at MUFG expects the BoE to start its hiking cycle in November, with stronger UK activity and employment data and firmer inflation supporting this view. Headline CPI rose to 3.5% in September, and MUFG anticipates inflation above 4.0% next year after the energy price cap reset. These developments are seen as favourable for further Pound strength near term.

Stronger UK data backs Pound

"We continue to expect the BoE to begin their hiking cycle in November after recent stronger economic data for both activity and employment alongside comments from BoE officials including Governor Bailey."

"The release of the latest UK CPI report this morning should seal the deal for a hike next month."

"The report revealed that headline inflation jumped to 3.5% in September up from 3.1% in August."

"We expect inflation to pick up further rising above 4.0% next year once the energy price cap is reset higher again."

"The latest developments remain favourable for the pound to strengthen further in the near-term."