BMO Now Leans for Next Week Bank of Canada Rate Hike as BoC Surveys Point to Higher Inflation Risks

12:43 PM EDT, 10/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BMO Capital Markets said it's now leaning toward a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada rate hike next week, as the central bank's latest business and consumer surveys point to mounting inflation risks despite this Monday's softer-than-expected consumer price index data. The BoC's third-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) surveys, also released Monday, point to renewed upward pressure on inflation expectations from trade tensions and elevated energy prices, increasing the likelihood of a more hawkish policy stance, wrote BMO in a note. While the survey findings are clouded by the timing of data collection, Governor Tiff Macklem's recent hawkish comments have raised the prospect of a rate hike as soon as next week, said the bank. Despite softer September consumer price index data earlier, trade uncertainty with the United States and persistently high energy prices continued to pose upside risks to inflation, reinforcing BMO's expectation of a 25bps increase.