Indian Rupee: Policy support and yield reversal – Societe Generale

Societe Generale highlights that the Reserve Bank of India has taken proactive steps to support the Indian Rupee, deploying multiple FX-related measures and bond operations. The report notes a risk-off driven reversal in US yields that benefits the Rupee, alongside higher CPI and WPI inflation and a wider trade deficit. The tone is cautiously constructive for INR over the coming days.

RBI actions bolster INR resilience

"The proactive RBI defended the INR by implementing a broad set of FX-support measures this week, including the reintroduction of a dedicated oil import window, tighter restrictions on corporate hedging, limits on uncovered FX transactions, a ban on rebooking cancelled derivatives, and fresh open market operation (OMO) bond sales."

"These steps were complemented by extending FX curbs to GIFT City and broadening the use of risk reserves."

"Risk-off driven sharp reversal in US yields despite strong CPI provides major fillip for the INR."

"On data front, headline CPI accelerated to 5.54% yoy in September from 4.83% in August, while factory gauge WPI jumped to 11.39% yoy from 9.92%."

"Trade deficit widened to $30.2bn in September from $26.86bn in August."