September Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast Amid Higher Gas Station Spending

12:32 PM EDT, 10/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US retail sales increased more than expected in September as outlays at gas stations rose amid elevated fuel prices, which TD Economics said are likely to weigh on the pace of spending ahead. Sales grew 0.8% last month, slowing down from an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in August, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. The consensus was for sales to increase 0.3% in September in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Sales at gasoline stations climbed 6.4% in September, accelerating from 4% growth the month before. Motor vehicle and parts dealers' receipts inclined 0.2% following a 0.7% gain. Spending at electronics and appliance stores decelerated to 0.6% from 2.1%, while outlays at restaurants and bars were up 1.1%, according to the official data. "Retail sales continued to advance in September, although the gain was partially driven by higher prices, particularly at the pump," TD Economics Economist Ksenia Bushmeneva said in a note. "Another robust increase in spending at bars and restaurants suggests consumers remain willing to spend on discretionary items." Diesel prices surged to a record high of $6.5276 per gallon Sept. 22, with the current average price at $6.3173, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices nationwide. Regular gas prices in the US averaged $4.3344 per gallon Thursday, compared with $3.0674 a year ago, AAA data showed. Crude oil prices are on track for their fourth consecutive monthly gains in October amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. "The pace of spending is likely to cool over the coming quarters as households face a growing number of headwinds, like soft real income growth, a low and declining saving rate, high energy costs and elevated interest rates," Bushmeneva said Thursday. "While the labor market and household wealth gains should continue to provide support, these tailwinds may not be enough to fully offset the growing pressures on purchasing power." Separately, official data showed Thursday that US producer prices jumped at the fastest pace in more than four years in September, driven by a surge in energy costs. On Wednesday, government data showed that consumer prices accelerated last month, fueled by a surge in gasoline. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark lending rate steady later this month, with the remaining odds in favor of a second consecutive 25-basis-point hike, as the central bank looks to tame inflation, according to the CME FedWatch tool.