Canada's GDP Growth to Slow in Q4 As Small Businesses Face Higher Costs, CFIB Says

11:22 AM EDT, 10/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's economic growth is projected to slow on a quarterly basis to 1.4% in the last three months of the year from 2.0% in the third quarter, as US tariffs and rising fuel costs put pressure on small businesses, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). Inflation is forecast to ease marginally to 2.9% in the fourth quarter from 3.0% in the previous quarter, but remain relatively high, said CFIB in Thursday's Main Street Quarterly report. Cost pressures are intensifying, with 39% of firms planning price hikes above 3% over the next year and 28% expecting to pass US tariff costs fully to customers. Private investment growth is forecast to slow to 1.6% in the fourth quarter from 5.2% in the third quarter, CFIB said. Higher fuel costs are squeezing margins, with around 70% of firms planning to absorb over half the increase as weak demand limits their ability to raise prices without losing sales, it added. Business sentiment has weakened, while net business formation has turned negative over the past four quarters. The outlook suggests moderating growth as cost pressures and trade uncertainty persist. Despite pockets of resilience, weak demand and elevated expenses continue to weigh on the recovery, CFIB said.