Aberdeen Group says rising gilt yields squeeze UK fiscal headroom ahead of Budget
Bitget2026/10/15 12:47- UK gilt yields could fall if the October 28 Budget delivers credible fiscal headroom, avoids unfunded giveaways and maintains predictable financing.
- The 10-year gilt yield reached around 5.4% at September’s end, roughly half a percentage point above a year earlier.
- Higher yields have eroded fiscal headroom from £23.6 billion in March to an estimated £8.5 billion–£16 billion.
- Each quarter-point rise in gilt yields cuts the Chancellor’s headroom by around £2.5 billion–£4 billion.
- Planned gilt sales total around £246 billion this financial year; a shift toward shorter maturities increases refinancing exposure.
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