September US Retail Sales Expected to Rise by 0.3%, Up 0.5% Excluding Motor Vehicles

02:56 PM EDT, 10/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3% in September after a revised 1.1% increase in the previous month, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg, with a price-related increase in gasoline station sales offset by slower sales growth elsewhere. August sales were strong, helped by back-to-school spending, higher auto volumes and rising gasoline prices, but the momentum is unlikely to continue in September, Scotia said in a research note. Prices of new vehicles rose 0.2% while used cars and truck prices were up 0.7% in the monthly consumer price report. However, analysts still expect a drop in sales of the motor vehicle and parts category in this week's report due to a sharp decline in unit sales. The category posted a 0.5% gain in August after annual revisions released on Sept. 28. The retail sales report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Thursday. Sales outside of motor vehicles are expected to increase by 0.5% after a 1.3% gain in August, with gasoline station sales forecast to increase sharply after a revised 3.0% rise in August. Gasoline prices rose by 9.1% in September after a 3.9% increase in the previous month. Sales excluding both vehicle sales and gasoline are expected to increase by 0.2%, a smaller gain than a 1.1% increase in August. Excluding the motor vehicle, building materials, gasoline station and food services categories, the so-called "control group" is forecast to rise by 0.3% after increasing by a revised 1.2% in August.