Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Rates on Oct. 28 as Growth, Inflation Risks Persist, TD Says

06:55 AM EDT, 10/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the Oct. 28 meeting as policymakers balance downside risks to economic growth against upside risks to inflation, according to TD Economics in a note. Recent data indicate that growth concerns are receding. At the same time, elevated energy prices remain a source of upside inflation risk. However, their impact on underlying inflation has so far been limited, wrote TD in a Friday note. Against this backdrop, next Monday's consumer price index report is set to be the "most important data" release informing the BoC's policy decision, said the bank. A weaker CPI print, particularly in core inflation, would bolster the case for keeping interest rates unchanged, added TD. On the contrary, a stronger core reading alongside broader price pressures could increase the likelihood of further rate hikes. "For now, we think the Bank will remain content on taking a more data-dependent approach to their next policy move," said TD.