IMF Revises 2026 World Growth Estimate Slightly Higher Vs. July Report

10:00 PM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The International Monetary Fund revised its estimate for 2026 global growth slightly higher in its World Economic Outlook update, with upward adjustments in several countries. World output is now expected to expand by 3.1% in 2026 after a 3.5% gain in 2025, a small upward adjustment from a 3.0% gain for 2026 in the July version of the WEO. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027, unrevised from the previous estimate. "The global economy is again proving resilient, but unevenly so and with rapidly narrowing margins of adjustment in the near term," the IMF said. "Activity in the first half of 2026 held up better than expected despite the dragging war in the Middle East and continuing strains from trade tensions." However, the IMF remained cautious about outlook given the global uncertainties. "Risks are skewed to the downside," the IMF said. "A prolonged stalemate or further escalation in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices elevated and volatile, revive inflationary pressures, worsen fiscal and external balances, and weigh on growth. Further disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyberattacks, or extreme weather events could amplify these effects." For the US, the IMF still sees a 2.3% gain in 2026 after a 2.3% increase in 2025, unrevised from the July estimate. The expectation for 2027 was revised slightly higher to 2.3% from 2.2% in the previous estimate. The Canadian economy is expected to expand by 1.1% in 2026 after a 1.9% gain in 2025, unrevised from the July estimate. Growth is seen accelerating to 1.7% in 2027, the same as in the July WEO. Euro area growth is now seen at 1.1% in 2026 after a 1.2% gain in 2025. The new estimate represents an upward revision from a 0.9% gain forecasted in July. Growth is expected to accelerate to 1.2% in 2027, unrevised from the July estimate. UK economic activity is now expected to rise by 1.3% in 2026, revised up from 1.0% in the previous estimate and following a 1.2% increase in 2025. The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2027, revised down from 1.3% in the previous estimate. The Japanese economy is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2026, revised up from 0.6% in the July estimate and following a 1.2% increase in 2025. The IMF sees Japanese growth remaining at 0.7% in 2027, unrevised from the previous estimate.