Canada Jobs Report on Friday May Bolster December Rate Hike Bets, ING Says

MT newswire2026/10/09 10:42

06:42 AM EDT, 10/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's September Labour Force Survey (LFS), due Friday, is expected to show a modest recovery, with jobs forecast to increase by 10,000 after falling by 42,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 6.5%, according to ING Economics. The LFS data are unlikely to trigger expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike in October, but could reinforce bets on a December move, which is already fully priced in, wrote ING in Friday's note. Statistics Canada will release September LFS at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. The Canadian dollar's response is expected to be muted, said the bank. Despite losing around 3% against the US dollar over the past month, it remains among the better-performing G10 currencies. Currency markets have also largely shrugged off US-Canada trade tensions, with the US dollar continuing to dictate moves in USD/CAD. A sustained break below CA$1.4200 in USD/CAD will likely depend on a broader improvement in global bond markets, added ING. Expectations of BoC tightening may lend some support to the Canadian dollar, but are unlikely to trigger a meaningful recovery on their own.

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