Trump: The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections; both sides are engaged in “productive discussions”

According to Zhihui Finance APP, U.S. President Trump stated on Thursday that the United States will not launch a military strike against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. This statement came just one day after reports that the White House had requested the Pentagon to develop attack plans against Iran, with the possibility of carrying them out before the midterm elections. Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is engaged in "productive discussions" with Iran, while emphasizing that Iran is currently "in a very bad situation both economically and militarily."

Trump also confirmed that the U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be fully enforced, highlighting that a record 22 million barrels of oil were transported through this maritime passage on Wednesday night, with no crude entering or leaving Iran.

After Trump made the above remarks, crude oil prices gave back their intraday gains. WTI crude oil futures retreated from an intraday high of nearly $93 per barrel to around $91; Brent crude oil futures fell to about $104 per barrel after reaching an intraday high of nearly $106 per barrel.

However, oil prices still rose on Thursday, with WTI crude and Brent crude up 3.3% and 3.8%, respectively. Although crude oil flows in the Middle East have increased in recent weeks, attacks on ships have also risen sharply. In the Middle East, in addition to the U.S.-Iran conflict, fighting between Yemeni government forces and Houthi rebels has escalated further, and the Saudi-led coalition has intensified strikes against the Houthis. The conflict is expanding with increasing intensity. Saudi Arabia is also reportedly in talks with Syria about sending Syrian troops to Yemen to participate in the fight against the Houthis. In addition, due to the impact of tropical storm Isaias, crude producers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have shut down more than 510,000 barrels per day of oil production, about a quarter of the region's output.

According to reports, on October 8, Iran's foreign minister Aragchi said in an interview that negotiations with the United States are ongoing. Iran is still evaluating the U.S. proposal to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days" and will respond within a few days.

Since February 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched a military strike against Iran, the United States has implemented airstrikes, maritime blockades, and economic pressure, with sporadic clashes still ongoing, resulting in a stalemate between war and peace. As negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by third parties, have made little progress, discussions about restarting military actions have increased.

On October 6, Trump said in a speech at Sparrows Point, Maryland, that military action against Iran "must be wrapped up," and that "the only question is in what way—gentle or tough." Earlier, on October 2, Trump’s national security team met for several hours at Camp David to discuss issues including the Iran conflict. An Israeli official said part of the meeting focused on the potential resumption of combat operations, but U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated afterwards that the meeting was focused on "long-term" foreign policy planning.

Analysts point out that at present, the possibility of the United States fully restarting the conflict with Iran cannot be entirely ruled out, and this probability may increase significantly after the U.S. midterm elections. There are structural obstacles in negotiations on core issues between the two sides, making substantive progress difficult. If major military operations are restarted, it could mean the U.S. may carry out large-scale bombings of Iran’s energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facility targets.

If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates again within the next three to four weeks, it could affect the U.S. midterm elections due to factors such as rising oil prices. Reports point out that various polls show American voters are generally concerned about their "wallets." Among these concerns, the U.S.-Iran conflict has become increasingly unpopular at home because it is driving up energy prices, turning it into a domestic issue affecting the livelihood of American people.