Elara Capital: The probability of the Reserve Bank of India raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February next year is increasing.
智通财经2026/10/08 07:06(1) Elara Capital believes that following a rate hike similar to that expected in December, the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of India raising rates by 25 basis points in February next year is increasing. (2) Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research, stated that the main driving factors include overall rising inflation and an upward trend in core inflation, suggesting that price pressures are expanding. (3) In the report, she noted that reduced rainfall has increased the risk of food inflation, while businesses are increasingly passing rising crude oil, commodity, and freight costs on to consumers. (4) Resilient domestic demand may accelerate the transmission of price increases during the festival period. (5) In addition, further tightening of monetary policy by other central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, is limiting the policy flexibility of the Reserve Bank of India.
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