Swiss Franc: Safe-haven demand keeps CHF firm against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank expects EUR/CHF to remain close to the 0.93 area in the coming weeks as Eurozone fiscal tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. While the CHF’s strength and Switzerland’s low inflation are unlikely to be welcomed by the SNB, the bank sees limited immediate policy concern unless Franc buying accelerates, with EUR/CHF expected to edge slightly higher over the medium term if French budget risks stabilise.

Franc strength and Eurozone fiscal risks

"Last week we revised down our EUR forecasts across the board including for EUR/CHF. We expect EUR/CHF to hold close to the 0.93 area in the coming weeks."

"Given that the CHF is overvalued on many models and in view of Switzerland’s low inflation rate, this will not be welcome at the SNB, though EUR/CHF is likely sufficiently far from its 2026 low to keep policymakers’ nerves calm for now."

"The SNB will be hoping that fiscal related tensions in the Eurozone calm down and safe haven flows into the CHF are limited."

"While current levels are comfortably above those held ahead of the March interventions, an accelerated bout of CHF buying this autumn could prompt further intervention by the SNB."

"The 100-day sma close to EUR/CHF 0.93 is likely to provide support ahead of the 200-day sma around 0.9240. Assuming some stability in the French budget situation, we expect EUR/CHF to hold around the 0.93 level in the coming weeks and push a little higher medium-term."