Mizuho is bullish on the yen: year-end target is 153; intervention should be monitored if it approaches 159 or falls below 160.

智通财经2026/10/07 04:06

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Kengo Suzuki, Senior Strategist at Mizuho Investor Relations' Investment Analysis Department, stated that the U.S. economy is mainly supported by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, but signs of slowing have already appeared. He expects the yen to strengthen to around 153 against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year. Suzuki also remarked that the current strength of the dollar is "excessive," and projects that by the end of March 2027, the yen will rise to around 150 per dollar. Given that U.S. mortgage rates are above 7%, the U.S. economy may gradually start to slow within the next six months, thereby limiting the dollar’s upside. If the yen exchange rate approaches 159, the bullish outlook for the yen may need to be re-evaluated, and the 158.5 level, which corresponds to the 200-day moving average, will draw attention. The consensus between Japan and the U.S. to prevent the yen from depreciating significantly is of great importance; if the yen continues to weaken and falls below 160, expectations of intervention are likely to suppress further short-selling of the yen.

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(1) Kengo Suzuki, Senior Strategist in Mizuho Investor Relations Investment Analysis Department, stated that the U.S. economy is mainly supported by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, but signs of slowing have already appeared; he expects the yen to rise to around 153 against the dollar by the end of the year. (2) Suzuki noted that the current strength of the U.S. dollar is “excessive,” and he expects the yen to rise to about 150 against the dollar by the end of March 2027. (3) Given that U.S. mortgage rates are above 7%, the U.S. economy may gradually begin to slow within six months, thereby limiting the room for the dollar to rise. (4) If the yen exchange rate approaches 159, the bullish view on the yen may need to be reassessed, and the 158.5 level of the 200-day moving average will draw attention. (5) The consensus between Japan and the U.S. on curbing yen depreciation is of significant importance; if the yen continues to depreciate and falls below 160, expectations of intervention are likely to restrain shorting the yen.

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Mizuho is bullish on the yen: year-end target is 153; intervention should be monitored if it approaches 159 or falls below 160.

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