Philippines: One more BSP hike expected in October - Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Bank economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25% in October, revising their previous call for a hold. They attribute the move to broader September inflation, higher Oil prices and Philippine Peso depreciation. The bank still anticipates easing from Q3-2027 once inflation returns to target.

BSP seen delivering one last hike

"We now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25% in October, versus our previous expectation of a hold."

"Since then, core inflation has risen, oil prices have rebounded, and the PHP has depreciated further."

"The Fed’s September hike and further tightening by other central banks add to the case for another measured increase, even as growth remains soft."

"We therefore raise our end-2026 policy rate forecast to 5.25% from 5.00%."

"We still expect BSP to ease monetary policy once inflation falls back within the target range, likely in Q3-2027."