Micron Stock's Make-or-Break Year-Mark Your Calendars -- Barrons.com
Dow Jones2026/10/06 11:16By Adam Clark Micron Technology seems to have leveled off after its latest breakout. Shareholders waiting to see when the memory-chip company will garner a higher valuation might have to wait for a while. Micron shares were down 0.2% at $1,061.50 in premarket trading Tuesday. Although the stock has rebounded handily from lows of below $800 in the summer, recent blowout earnings haven't helped it regain the highs of more than $1,200 reached earlier this year. As Barron's has previously written, the problem is that investors are still wary of what happens when the artificial-intelligence boom stops driving memory prices higher. Although Micron has locked in long-term supply deals, the market doesn't seem willing to assign it a permanently higher price-to-earnings multiple until it sees evidence of what happens in a downcycle. So when will that downcycle actually happen? The earliest predictions of a memory price peak are for mid-2027, from analysts such as Citi's Atif Malik, who points to increasing Chinese supply. But Micron said in its earnings that it has already locked in customers for more than 75% of its production next year. "We believe 2027 pricing has been set with large customers for some time, with ongoing or recent negotiations likely tied to smaller deals," wrote Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson in a research note this week. So the more likely date for memory prices to be tested looks to be in 2028. That's when Micron's South Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are set to bring multiple new production sites into operation, with a total of seven new memory fabrication and packaging plants set to come online that year according to research firm Trendforce. "The timelines point to 2028 as a key inflection point for new capacity -- but with fabs ramping gradually, rather than all at once, supply relief may prove just as gradual," wrote Trendforce analysts Tuesday. If Micron's supply deals can keep prices stable or growing even through the 2028 capacity increase, then even the most hardened memory ske
By Adam Clark
Micron Technology seems to have leveled off after its latest breakout. Shareholders waiting to see when the memory-chip company will garner a higher valuation might have to wait for a while.
Micron shares were down 0.2% at $1,061.50 in premarket trading Tuesday. Although the stock has rebounded handily from lows of below $800 in the summer, recent blowout earnings haven't helped it regain the highs of more than $1,200 reached earlier this year.
As Barron's has previously written, the problem is that investors are still wary of what happens when the artificial-intelligence boom stops driving memory prices higher. Although Micron has locked in long-term supply deals, the market doesn't seem willing to assign it a permanently higher price-to-earnings multiple until it sees evidence of what happens in a downcycle.
So when will that downcycle actually happen? The earliest predictions of a memory price peak are for mid-2027, from analysts such as Citi's Atif Malik, who points to increasing Chinese supply. But Micron said in its earnings that it has already locked in customers for more than 75% of its production next year.
"We believe 2027 pricing has been set with large customers for some time, with ongoing or recent negotiations likely tied to smaller deals," wrote Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson in a research note this week.
So the more likely date for memory prices to be tested looks to be in 2028. That's when Micron's South Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are set to bring multiple new production sites into operation, with a total of seven new memory fabrication and packaging plants set to come online that year according to research firm Trendforce.
"The timelines point to 2028 as a key inflection point for new capacity -- but with fabs ramping gradually, rather than all at once, supply relief may prove just as gradual," wrote Trendforce analysts Tuesday.
If Micron's supply deals can keep prices stable or growing even through the 2028 capacity increase, then even the most hardened memory skeptics might have to admit it is too cheap.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 06, 2026 07:16 ET (11:16 GMT)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Jensen Huang's influence surpasses that of Nvidia— and that's exactly the problem
Jensen Huang has been the key driving force behind the massive expansion of AI infrastructure, with his personal credibility and authoritative decision-making deeply embedded in the narrative of the global tech market’s rise over the past three years. Now, as scandals emerge, Nvidia’s trading team is expected to become more conservative and slow down external financing commitments, which undoubtedly worsens the situation for neoclouds already facing tight funding.
Crypto prices
More
