French, Spanish Bond Yields Rise on Fiscal, Political Uncertainty; Treasury Yields Steady -- Update

By Renae Dyer

French government-bond yields rose on Monday, staying not far below Friday's multiyear highs, amid building concerns over the country's indebtedness, while Spanish government-bond yields increased after the government announced a snap election.

Treasury yields traded steady, easing from recent highs after Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data caused markets to trim expectations for another U.S. interest-rate increase in October.

French 10-year government bond yields increased 1.8 basis points to 4.873% in Europe's midday trade, according to Tradeweb. They hit a peak of 4.993% Friday, their highest level since 2002 amid concerns that the government's recent budget proposal will struggle to be approved by a fragmented parliament. By contrast, 10-year German Bund yields were little changed at 3.457%.

The French-German 10-year bond spread stood at 140.44 basis points, having spiked on Friday at a near 15-year high of 158.67 basis points.

"In European government bond spreads, we would not attempt to catch the falling knife yet, as an agreement on the French budget is a long way off and the European Central Bank is unlikely to act on spreads yet," Commerzbank rates strategist Hauke Siemssen said in a note.

Fiscal concerns should keep yields under sustained pressure, except for Bunds, he said.

Spanish 10-year yields increased 3.4 basis points to 4.119%, having hit 4.219% on Friday--which was the highest since December 2013. Spreads between Spanish and German 10-year yields rose on the day to 66.10 basis points, albeit staying below a peak of 74.18 basis points reached on Friday.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called snap elections for next month following protests against high housing costs. Recent polls suggest the elections, set to take place on Nov. 29, could result in a right-wing coalition government between Spain's main conservative People's Party and the anti-immigration Vox party.

"Unrest in Spain and France underlines the difficult position governments are facing," Wealth Club chief investment strategist Susannah Streeter said in a note.

Treasury yields were little changed as investors digested Friday's data that showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in September. Economists in a WSJ survey had expected an 84,000 increase in payrolls and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1%.

Still, Treasury yields remained elevated as inflation concerns mean interest rates are still likely to rise in the coming months.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was steady at 5.277%, having reached a 24-year high of 5.344% on Thursday. The 30-year equivalent was little changed at 5.629% after hitting a 24-year high of 5.693% Thursday.

Following Friday's jobs data, markets priced a 20% chance of the Fed raising rates in October, compared to over 70% last week, but still fully priced a 25 basis point rate increase by December, according to LSEG.

"The underlying fundamentals still point towards higher rates, with underlying inflation still stuck above 2.5%, job growth still above breakeven, and a solid growth outlook for both consumption and investment that is unlikely to slow unless the AI trade breaks," Bank of America economists said in a note.

Write to Renae Dyer at renae.dyer@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 05, 2026 07:02 ET (11:02 GMT)