EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bears await break below 0.8450, YTD low amid French debt crisis

The EUR/GBP cross attracts sellers for the seventh straight day and drops back closer to the year-to-date low, around the 0.8460-0.8455 region, at the start of a new week.

The shared currency continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns that the spiraling debt crisis in France could spill over to other high-debt European nations. This comes ahead of the French presidential election next year and adds to market anxiety over future fiscal policy, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/GBP cross is to the downside.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits in negative territory with a declining line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold readings near 25, hinting that while downside pressure dominates, the sell-off is becoming stretched. This suggests that further weakness could increasingly encounter dip-buying rather than follow-through selling.

In the meantime, any corrective bounce might now confront an immediate hurdle near the 0.8500 psychological mark ahead of the 0.8540 region. A sustained move beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the EUR/GBP cross beyond the 0.8600 round figure, which coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open room for a corrective rebound.

On the flip side, bears might now await a break below the previous YTD trough, around mid-0.8400s, before positioning for an extension of the recent rejection slide from the 200-day EMA. The EUR/GBP cross might then aim towards testing the 0.8400 mark before testing the May 2025 swing low, near the 0.8380 region.

EUR/GBP daily chart