Chainlink’s rally is changing the historical price movement and exchange supply correlation. Chainlink [LINK] moved out of its previous trading range between $7 and $10.
Later on, the altcoin rose above $15 after hovering around $9. Since then, it has been trending downward towards $13.89.
Despite this upward move, LINK reserve balances on exchanges remained relatively unchanged between 124 million and 130 million LINK.
This is opposed to spiking as they did with other rallies prior to declines in prices, making more tokens potentially available for sale.
According to CryptoQuant data, exchange reserves sit at approximately 124.3 million, near the multi-year lows and significantly less than the record high of 190 million at the beginning of 2024.
Therefore, the rally appears to have occurred without the typical increase in supply that would normally occur with a price increase. If reserve levels remain at multi year lows, it is possible that selling pressure will remain limited.
Thus continuing to support the underlying structural integrity of the token and enabling another attempt towards recent highs.
LINK tests key support
With long-term exchange supply remaining weak, LINK’s next test will be to determine if the price can regain short-term momentum past its short-term base. Price had reached $15.60 but was unable to hold the $14.15 and $14.60 trading range when price moved lower toward $13.30.
The buyers were able to quickly defend $13.58, allowing for the price to rebound toward $14.00 and limit the overall downward movement.
Defending $13.58 was critical, as it separates a controlled pullback from a deeper structural breakdown.
Holding it keeps the rising trendline within reach and allows buyers to challenge the broken range again. Therefore, the next move above $14.15–$14.60 would signal that demand has absorbed the sell-off and could reopen the path toward $15.60.
On the other hand, a breakdown below $13.58 opens exposure to the $12.80–$13.00 support zone
LINK targets $14.40 liquidity
LINK’s recovery is now approaching a liquidity zone that could determine its next short-term move. Following a bounce off the 13.75-13.80 demand zone, price has established itself at the $14.00 mark with an upward movement to larger zones of heavy liquidation.
The strongest concentration exists within the 14.25–14.40 range, creating a potential upside magnet if buyers sustain momentum.
A push into this liquidity cluster could trigger forced buying via short liquidations, accelerating momentum toward higher targets. As a result, this would create additional buyers, forcing the price up to these ranges.
However, the potential breakout will depend on whether LINK stays above $13.80, keeping the larger liquidity path available.
Should that fail, then selling could potentially drive the price down towards the $13.60-$13.50 area, where another liquidity pocket may attract nearby buyers. Thus, $13.80 now controls the immediate direction.
Final Summary
- Chainlink holds above $13.58 as reserves stay near 124.3 million.
- LINK targets $14.40, while $13.80 remains key support.
