Banxico survey sees lower inflation, stronger growth and 6.50% hold

A Bank of Mexico (Banxico) survey of private economists surveyed between September 15-28, revised down their headline and core inflation forecasts, updated their projections for the USD/MXN exchange rate, and revised their projections for the future of interest rates set by the Mexican institution.

Economists expect headline inflation to end at 3.87% in 2026, down from 3.90% in August, while core figures are expected to end at 3.90%, beneath August’s 3.99% projection.

For the next year, they see inflation at 3.82%, with the underlying print expected to drop to 3.78%.

Regarding economic growth, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year is forecast to rise 1.40%, up from 1.30% in August. Meanwhile, the USD/MXN is projected to end this year at 17.50 and at 18.04 by the end of 2026.

The survey showed that analysts expect Banxico to hold rates unchanged at 6.50% through the end of next year.