Canadian Dollar's Outlook Stays Bearish in Q4 as Rate Gap And Trade Risks Weigh, UBS Says

10:51 AM EDT, 10/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS Global Research said its bearish outlook for the Canadian dollar remains intact for the last quarter of the year, with the USD/CAD projected at CA$1.43 by year-end, up from today's CA$1.42. A wider interest-rate gap with the United States and elevated trade risks are expected to weigh on the Canadian currency, while fiscal easing and domestic investment initiatives are unlikely to fully offset these headwinds, wrote UBS in a note dated Wednesday but made available to media on Thursday. The bank has a USD/CAD range of CA$1.40 to CA$1.45 in the last quarter of 2026. The lower end of the USD/CAD range at CA$1.40 reflects the potential for a temporary loonie rebound after a possible October Bank of Canada rate hike, added UBS.