Canada's Payroll Growth Shows Adjustment to US Tariffs, BMO Says

06:54 AM EDT, 09/25/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian industries and governments added a "solid" 26,100 payroll jobs (SEPH) in July, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase and bringing year-over-year payroll growth to 171,900, or 0.9%, according to BMO Capital Markets in a note. Excluding public administration, where hiring has been boosted by preparations for the 2026 Census, payroll employment increased by 125,200 annually, wrote BMO in the Thursday note. Healthcare and social assistance accounted for roughly half of the underlying increase, adding 65,300 jobs. Excluding both this sector and public administration, payroll employment still rose by 59,900 year over year, said the bank. While modest, the gain marks a "material" improvement after a year of consecutive declines, spanning the start of the United States-Canada trade war in March 2025 through March 2026, wrote BMO Senior Economist Sal Guatieri in the note. The rebound suggests Canadian businesses had begun adapting to tariffs and related uncertainty ahead of the latest escalation, added Guatieri.