Brent: conflict-driven gains face deal hopes – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp rise in Brent Oil as geopolitical tensions and Iranian rhetoric fuel concerns about an extended conflict. Brent briefly spiked above $108 before retracing on reports of potential US–Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They note recent price action and stress that any diplomatic breakthrough remains uncertain.

Geopolitics and deal speculation steer prices

"While we were all walking, markets have had another rough 24 hours, as a fresh jump in oil and gas seemed to send bond yields in another tailspin. Brent crude rose +3.41% to $106.60/bbl, even if it did pare back some of its gain after Reuters reported that the US and Iran were exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the blockade."

"That rise in yields came as oil prices continued to march higher. The initial driver were escalatory comments from Iran, which played into investor concerns about an extended conflict. For instance, Iran’s Fars reported an adviser to the Supreme Leader, who said that the war may “widen further and extend to the Indian Ocean or elsewhere”."

"After hitting an intra-day high of $108.16/bbl Brent crude did see a mostly temporary drop of around $4 just after Europe closed as Reuters reported that the US and Iran are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."

"We've been here many times before but the article made the valid point that it’s not just the US that has an incentive to get a deal done before midterms. The consensus seems to feel that Iran is happy to make life uncomfortable for the US ahead of the vote."

"All that left Brent closing at $106.60/bbl (+3.41%), before declining by -0.91% this morning so far."