QIC flags risk oil above USD 100/bbl forces global central banks back into tightening mode
Bitget2026/09/25 05:16- QIC flagged rising oil prices as the key swing factor, risking a shift to a “Malignant” scenario with Brent above USD 100/bbl into 2027.
- Core inflation re-accelerated in major economies, pushing the Fed, ECB, RBA, BoJ, BoC, BoE toward renewed tightening over 12 months.
- Market pricing implied RBA cash rate at 5% by May, fed funds at 4.8% by July 2027, ECB policy rate at 3.4% by July 2027.
- Higher real yields lifted the cost of capital; a 0.9 percentage-point rise in US 10-year real yields since early March risked 15% equity downside.
- AI-driven capex and wealth effects supported growth and stocks; QIC estimated 1ppt higher real rates needs 1ppt permanent lift in real earnings growth.
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