Pinghao claims there is a lack of evidence that AI companies' unexpectedly high bond issuance has pushed up US Treasury yields.

Pimco stated that considering the comprehensive nominal yield, term premium, and swap spread, there is rather little evidence that AI companies' larger-than-expected bond issuances are pushing up US Treasury yields. Multi-asset credit strategist Lotfi Karoui wrote in a report that while the boom in AI capital expenditures could indeed raise the equilibrium real interest rate through the savings and investment channel, the narrower view that AI bond issuances are directly crowding out US Treasuries is not well supported by the data. Pimco pointed out that over the past year there have been six larger-than-expected bond issuances whose existing bonds saw abnormal declines before and after the issuance announcement, indicating that the scale or timing of these deals was not fully priced in by the market.