Novo CEO says weight-loss drugs are expected to capture 50% of the weight-loss market share by 2030

Patrick Wingrove

London, September 22 - Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO CEO said to Reuters on Tuesday that by 2030, weight loss drugs could account for nearly half of the global obesity drug market. The Danish pharmaceutical company is actively adjusting its strategy to adapt to the market’s shift from weekly injectable therapies toward oral medications.

CEO Mike Doustdar stated that Novo Nordisk is preparing for a market where oral drugs play a larger role. Earlier this year, the company launched its first weight loss drug ahead of competitor Eli Lilly LLY.N, and currently has five oral therapies under development.

After Novo Nordisk’s “Capital Markets Day” event in London, Doustdar told Reuters that competitors remain highly focused on injectables—which still dominate the market—and he believes this trend may be more favorable for Novo Nordisk in the long run.

“What if, by 2030, the proportion of oral drugs to injectables in the market reaches 50/50?” he said, noting that for every two oral drugs developed by competitors, there are eight injectables. “We are preparing for all possible scenarios, including this one.”

Changing fortunes

If this ratio becomes reality, it would exceed Wall Street expectations—Wall Street estimates that in the obesity treatment market, projected to reach $10 billion to $15 billion by 2030, oral therapies will account for about 14% to 40%.

Since Novo Nordisk launched the weight loss drug Wegovy in 2021 and became the highest-valued listed company in Europe, its fortunes have sharply reversed. As Eli Lilly’s market share surpassed Novo Nordisk, its share price has crashed over 70% from its peak.

The Wegovy weight loss drug has provided the company a respite. According to company presentation materials on Monday, after its launch, oral therapies currently account for about one-third of U.S. obesity prescription drugs, while Novo Nordisk holds more than 80% of new oral prescriptions.

Sales for the drug reached nearly DKK 5.5 billion (about $843 million) in the first half of the year.

Novo Nordisk’s oral weight loss drug pipeline includes new-generation dual-action tablets zenagamtide, an oral amylin analog, and a small molecule drug.

Doustdar added that with patent protection for Wegovy’s SNAC delivery technology, the oral version will be shielded from generic competition from the “mid to late 2030s,” thus alleviating investors' concerns about a “patent cliff” following the loss of exclusive sales for the active ingredient, semaglutide, in the early 2030s.

(To aid non-native English speakers, Reuters has automated the translation of its report into several other languages. As automated translations may contain errors or lack necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translation text and provides it solely to convenience readers. Reuters assumes no responsibility for any damages or losses caused by using the automated translation feature.)