Why Nucor Is Today's Worst Stock in the S&P 500 -- Barrons.com

By Kit Norton

Shares of Nucor fell Friday after the steel manufacturer issued quarterly guidance that was below Wall Street expectations even as U.S. steel prices have advanced significantly over the past 12 months.

Nucor stock dropped 5.8% to $2249.74 and was the the worst-performing component in the S&P 500 for the trading session.

Fellow steel stocks Steel Dynamics and Cleveland-Cliffs fell 4.6% and 1.8%, respectively.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics both issued third-quarter guidance that underwhelmed Wall Street. Nucor expects adjusted earnings between $5.55 and $5.65 a share while Steel Dynamics guided for third-quarter earnings of $5.34 to $5.38 a share. The profit outlooks were well below the respective analyst consensus views.

Both companies have been grappling with higher steel raw material input costs and while analysts expected the initial stock market reaction to be negative, the guidance was widely viewed as conservative with the fourth quarter likely benefiting from pricing lags and tightening steel demand.

Tariffs and price reversals remain a risk for the stocks and the steel sector, according to analysts.

While the the quarterly outlooks were modest versus Wall Street expectations, Steel Dynamics said it expects profits from its steel operation segment to be meaningfully higher from the second quarter on metal margin expansion, higher average selling prices, and lower scrap costs. The company also sees shipments increasing.

Nucor, similarly, expects sequential profit growth in all its segments but its raw materials business with weaker pricing on that front.

Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered her price target on Nucor stock to $280 from $285 but kept an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst raised her price target on Steel Dynamics to $257 from $255 and also kept an Overweight rating on the stock.

Tanners noted the steel sheet market remains tight "with supply concerns outweighing pricing." The analyst added that U.S. steel prices will likely ease in the fourth quarter as imports rise and demand seasonally softens.

Higher steel prices have helped boost both Nucor and Steel Dynamics stock. U.S. benchmark steel prices have risen nearly 30% this year to $1,237 a ton as of Thursday. Steel prices have risen 49% over the past 12 months.

Nucor stock has gained 63% this year as of the closing bell on Thursday while shares of Steel Dynamics have advanced 45%.

The bottom line is that even though the quarterly profit outlooks missed Wall Street expectations, there doesn't appear to be worries about the underlying steel businesses or steel demand.

Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com

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September 18, 2026 10:58 ET (14:58 GMT)