Spanish government bond yields surpass 4%, putting global bond markets under pressure

⑴ The yield on Spain’s 10-year government bonds has exceeded 4%, reaching 4.006%, the highest level since October 2023. If it further surpasses the previous peak of 4.066%, it will mark the highest level since 2014. ⑵ This round of sell-offs has swept through the global fixed income market, with oil prices rising above $100 per barrel again. Inflation has yet to subside, stoking market expectations for further interest rate hikes, while escalating Middle East conflicts have intensified the pressure. ⑶ The latest U.S. inflation data has reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, with market pricing for a 25 basis point increase approaching 90%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is nearing 5%, weakening global bond markets. ⑷ Brent crude rose above $108 per barrel again on Monday, as Gulf states postponed negotiations with Iran regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline was shut down following a drone attack. Higher energy costs mean increased inflation risks, further limiting central banks' room for monetary easing. ⑸ The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds has risen to 4.5%, the highest since 2008, while Germany’s 10-year bond yield stands at about 3.5%, a level not seen since 2009. The focus remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting statement and the impact of oil price trends on the bond market.