RBC Sees Canada's CPI Holding at 3.0% Y/Y in August

07:13 AM EDT, 09/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's consumer price index is expected to hold at 3.0% annually in August, according to RBC Economics in a note. Energy inflation remains high, but little changed from July, as gasoline prices slipped slightly monthly but remain 23% above year-ago levels, wrote the bank in a Friday note. Food inflation has moderated in recent months but is expected to hold near 3%. Statistics Canada is slated to release August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday. Core price pressures are expected to stay subdued in August, with inflation projected at roughly 1.9% annually, added the bank. While the Bank of Canada has warned that elevated energy prices could broaden inflationary pressures and lead to further rate hikes, signs of significant pass-through remain limited, according to RBC. Inflation breadth is steady, and the BoC's preferred core measures remain broadly aligned with the 2% year-over-year target. The risk of earlier BoC rate hikes is rising, particularly if underlying inflation accelerates or economic activity remains resilient, said the bank.