CICC raises its forecast for Brent crude oil price in Q4 2026 to $85 per barrel

According to a research report by CICC, looking ahead to this year, we believe oil prices may have a "supply floor" below and a "demand ceiling" above. On one hand, since the third quarter, the pace of Middle Eastern crude oil production recovery has fallen short of expectations, and the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions will prompt the market to re-evaluate the persistence of Middle East crude supply losses, supporting a rise in the oil price "supply floor." On the other hand, endogenous demand remains weak, and it is not appropriate to extrapolate the summer demand recovery in a linear fashion; once oil prices surpass $100, a "demand ceiling" may appear. Taken together, we have raised our Brent oil price forecast for 4Q26 to a central value of $85 per barrel (previously $80 per barrel in the June forecast), to reflect a more sustained supply gap and lower inventory levels. In the refined oil market, the recent rise in oil prices and shipping costs is impacting Eurasian refining margins in the short term; gasoline and other refined oil crack spreads are under pressure to fall from high levels. By comparison, we advise paying attention to the structural shortage and resilience of crack spreads in the overseas diesel market.