U.S. Treasury Bonds at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal? 5% Becomes the Key Battleground

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智通财经2026/09/10 13:06

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U.S. stock index futures declined, with the Nasdaq 100 index falling more than 1%. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) matched expectations month-on-month, came in above expectations year-on-year; the Core PPI was below expectations month-on-month, and in line with expectations year-on-year. Initial jobless claims numbered 206,000, with expectations around 205,000.
The Europe Stoxx 600 index fell about 0.6%. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The U.S. dollar strengthened, gold dropped more than 1%, U.S. crude oil climbed over 4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to around 4.92%.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Wednesday rose to its highest point since 2023 after the Treasury Department announced larger long-term bond buybacks, as investors were disappointed by a lack of more aggressive measures. It subsequently pulled back, closing near 4.84%, with support from strong demand at a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction.
However, upward pressure resurfaced on Thursday, with the yield rising above 4.90%, as New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures tested the $100 per barrel level, and August producer price and initial jobless claims data were generally in line with expectations.
Investors are now turning attention to Friday's consumer inflation report and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Federal funds futures currently suggest a rate hike probability of about 68%.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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U.S. Treasury Bonds at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal? 5% Becomes the Key Battleground

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