Domestic bond market supply-demand relationship improves; S&P 500 earnings growth accelerates; domestic consumption-stimulating policies explore diverse approaches — 0903 Macroeconomic Overview

华尔街见闻2026/09/03 14:21

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In August, ultra-long bond yields fluctuated and edged down slightly. The government's bond issuance progress for the first eight months reached 64.8%, slower than the same period last year. It is expected that from September to December, about 1.5 trillion ultra-long-term interest rate bonds will be issued. Year-on-year bond market supply has decreased, significantly improving the supply-demand relationship, and in the second half of the year, ultra-long bonds still offer notable capital gain potential.
S&P 500 index revenue and profit growth are expected to increase by Q2 2026. The technology sector continues to be the main engine for profit growth, but there is increasing divergence at the margin within the sector. AI application software is moving from narrative-driven expectations to actual performance validation, with some companies gradually demonstrating AI monetization capabilities. Allocation recommendations suggest following both the AI industry boom and pro-cyclical themes.
Under future consumption-stimulating policies, catering and small-scale discretionary consumption are the fastest to see short-term effects, with experience from consumer vouchers showing a multiplier effect ranging from 3.1 to 5.8 times. Automobiles can still support total retail sales, but investment should be tailored by region and demand. The boost from the post-property chain and essential consumption is limited, so the focus should be on upgrading existing housing and supporting low-income groups.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Domestic bond market supply-demand relationship improves; S&P 500 earnings growth accelerates; domestic consumption-stimulating policies explore diverse approaches — 0903 Macroeconomic Overview

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