Analyst Says $15 Dogecoin Target Is Dead After Long-Term Channel Break

Analyst Ali Martinez says the $15 Dogecoin target he has been tracking since the token’s early days is dead, now that DOGE has broken below the long-term rising channel the whole thesis was built on.

The call undoes months of bullish setups other analysts pointed to through August, from whale accumulation to a technical buy signal that had suggested a rally back toward that same structure.

The Channel That Defined the $15 Case Just Broke

The channel in question is a rising parallel one that Martinez has defined Dogecoin’s price action since inception. Every time the price touched its lower boundary, it marked what he calls a generational buying opportunity, pointing to gains of 9,221% in 2017 and 30,694% in 2020.

When DOGE returned to that support in February 2026, the setup pointed to the possibility of another historic run, with $15 as the projected target. Now that DOGE has broken below the boundary, Martinez says the move has removed “the technical foundation behind the $15 thesis.”

The OG meme coin was trading around $0.0806 at the time of writing, down about 6.6% for the week and 3% on the day, sitting just below the $0.0813 level several analysts had flagged earlier this month as the line to hold.

Against Bitcoin, the token is almost flat, down about half a percent, so this isn’t a case of DOGE lagging some broader market pullback so much as losing a level tied to its own chart. It also remains 89% below its all-time high of $0.7316, set in May 2021.

How the Bullish Case Built Up Through August

The bullish case has been building for weeks. On August 15, Martinez pointed to a monthly TD Sequential buy signal alongside an inverted hammer and a developing doji candle, a combination he compared to a setup from August 2022 that preceded a 145% monthly rally.

He also flagged whale wallets adding more than 430 million DOGE that week. The meme coin had slumped below $0.07 days earlier, its lowest level in almost three years, with active addresses climbing from 38,000 in July to 44,000.

By late August, DOGE had rallied 30% in a week to near $0.09, clearing that $0.0813 level the market was watching.

That rally has since faded, with DOGE back under the same resistance it broke through weeks earlier.