Daily Discussion on Gold: Falling Below $4,300 – Crisis or Opportunity?

From the perspective of the cyclical positioning framework, the international gold price remains below the $4,300/oz threshold. The positive deviation has basically been absorbed, and prices are now testing a key support zone in the $4,250–$4,200/oz region.

The stochastic indicator (KDJ) has dropped to -7.11, entering oversold territory, with a short-term technical rebound demand building up.

The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.8, reaching the highest level since 2025, with the US Dollar Index at 99.7.

International gold prices are near the lower boundary of the Level 4 monthly band, with the positive deviation largely digested. The 4.8% US Treasury yield marginal tightening is the core driver behind this round of declines, and the relatively strong US Dollar Index at 99.7 is exerting downward pressure on international gold prices.

This round of declines is mainly a result of phase suppression from the repricing of interest rate hike expectations, rather than a comprehensive sell-off triggered by systemic risks.

Overall, international gold prices may still face short-term downward momentum, but the KDJ oversold signal indicates limited downside. The two main mid-term themes—central bank gold purchases and concerns over US Treasury credit—remain valid. This round of decline is mainly a result of phase suppression from the repricing of interest rate hike expectations.

The key observation window is on September 4, when US nonfarm payroll data for August is released—if the data is weak, interest rate hike expectations could be lowered, potentially prompting a rebound to $4,400–$4,450/oz; if the data is stronger than expected, there may be further testing of the $4,250–$4,200/oz support zone.