Bank of Canada to Hold Rates Wednesday as Trade Risks Weigh on Canadian Dollar, ING Says

07:32 AM EDT, 09/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Wednesday, with little risk of a surprise hike as core inflation remains near the BoC's target, according to ING Economics. The latest escalation in US-Canada trade and diplomatic tensions has overshadowed recent labor-market strength and a solid 3.3% annualized second-quarter gross domestic product expansion, wrote the bank in a Wednesday note. Canada's central bank sees tariffs as a drag on growth and employment, while low core inflation limits the case for an immediate hawkish shift despite potential price pressures from Canada's retaliatory tariffs against the US, added ING. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is likely to stress at Wednesday's policy meeting that monetary policy cannot offset trade shocks while keeping the door open to further hikes, said ING. Markets price around 27bps of hikes by January, limiting the scope for Wednesday's decision to shift expectations, especially given the influence of the US rate curve. The Canadian dollar faces a challenging near-term outlook, as prolonged trade uncertainty could weigh on investment, hiring and consumer activity even if tariffs are eventually removed, according to the bank. Combined with ING's bullish US dollar view, this points to further upside in USD/CAD, potentially toward 1.400 this month.