Swedish Election Presents Material Risk to Bank Earnings -- Market Talk

0800 GMT - Elections on Sept. 13 pose a material risk for Swedish bank earnings, should the opposition party that is leading in the polls win power, Citi analysts write in a note. A bank tax, as proposed by the Social Democrats, would potentially represent 2%-8% of 2027 consensus pretax profit, Citi says. Nordea would be least affected, with Handelsbanken hit the most, it adds. On top of this, opposition proposals to lower return on equity targets for state-owned SBAB Bank would put further pressure on sector margins. Longer-term, Citi sees further risk to Swedish banks' costs of equity from bank taxes and a challenged market share backdrop, which may prompt investors to reconsider Swedish banks as the "safe haven" they once were. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 02, 2026 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT)