XRP stalls below $1.54 resistance as weekly close approaches

The significance of the 50-week EMA

The 50-week EMA is widely followed by traders as a trend indicator, with price action above or below this line often interpreted as a shift in market direction. ChartNerd’s analysis, which spans from November 2024 to August 2026, highlights that XRP previously reached a peak at $3.65 in mid-2025 before entering a prolonged period of decline.

The chart indicates that XRP recently rebounded from lows near $1, rallying up to the $1.54 resistance before stalling at this crucial point.

Previous attempt and warning signs

A similar setup played out in January 2026. During that period, XRP managed to push above the 50-week EMA but failed to close above it by week’s end. Another unsuccessful attempt followed the next week, leading to a substantial drop and a flash crash in February. The subsequent downtrend extended for several months.

ChartNerd flagged early warning signals on August 23, cautioning that failure to close above the 50-week EMA would likely trigger a broader retracement, indicating that XRP was not out of danger. The forecast was realized as the asset resumed its downward trajectory, with broader market factors influencing the movement.

ChartNerd identified $1.54 as a critical resistance, emphasizing that another weekly close below the 50-week EMA could set off a deeper retracement for XRP. The analyst pointed to January’s rejection, adding that only a clean break and sustained move above $1.54 would invalidate the bearish outlook.

Mini dictionary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA): A technical indicator that gives more weight to recent price data, making it more responsive to new information than a simple moving average.

What analysts are watching now

ChartNerd maintains that $1.54 remains the make-or-break level for XRP. The analyst warns that if the current weekly candle closes below the 50-week EMA for a second consecutive time, it would mirror the January pattern and likely lead to further declines. The “invalidation” point for this scenario is a definitive weekly close above $1.54, backed by sustained follow-through buying.

At the time the chart was published, XRP was trading at $1.4012, placing it below the pivotal EMA level. Last week, XRP traded as high as $1.68 before losing momentum and closing below the resistance. Traders are now monitoring the weekly close, as it is seen as a significant indicator of the next potential major move for the digital asset.

Importance of the weekly close

Traders place significant emphasis on weekly closes, as they are considered more meaningful than brief intraweek price spikes. A close above $1.54 would indicate a possible shift in momentum in favor of bullish sentiment. Conversely, a second consecutive close below this level is viewed by analysts as confirmation of a bearish technical structure, with historical precedent suggesting potential for further downside movement.

If XRP closes above the 50-week EMA at $1.54, momentum could favor bulls. Otherwise, another close below this threshold may reinforce the risk of a continued downturn.

Many market watchers now await the week’s final print to determine whether XRP can escape its current resistance and establish a new trajectory, or if history will repeat with another move lower.