Brent Oil: Geopolitics delay supply recovery – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong raise their end-2026 Brent forecast to USD 80/bbl from USD 75/bbl as Middle East supply disruptions prove more prolonged. They note falling inventories, rising transport costs and emerging diesel shortages as key constraints. Brent has traded above USD 90/bbl on escalating US–Iran tensions and persistent risks around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher path on Middle East risks

"Brent crude rose above USD90/bbl overnight as Middle East tensions escalated, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in roughly a month and new concerns emerging over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.",

"More than five months into the Middle East conflict, oil prices remain driven by geopolitics. We raise our end-2026 Brent forecast to USD80/bbl from USD75/bbl, reflecting a slower recovery in Middle East supply as US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled."

"Inventories are falling, transport costs are rising, and diesel shortages are emerging as the key constraint, keeping geopolitical risk firmly embedded in prices."

"The oil market has largely adjusted to crude supply disruptions, but only by depleting buffers. The key bottleneck is no longer crude. It is diesel."