July Trade Data in Canada Likely to Reflect US Tariff Front-Loading, RBC Says

10:34 AM EDT, 08/31/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's July trade data, due Thursday, is expected to show another wave of US tariff front-loading to provide a temporary boost to exports, according to RBC Economics in a note. The US announced new tariffs against specific Canadian imports on July 20, effective Aug. 22, likely prompting US importers to build inventories ahead of the deadline, wrote the bank in a note Friday. Something similar was seen in spring 2025 ahead of the implementation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs. RBC estimates Canada's trade surplus to widen to C$4.2 billion in July from C$3.9 billion in June. Canadian exports are expected to edge up 0.1% on the month in July on higher vehicle shipments, while imports are forecast to fall 0.3%, widening the trade surplus. Despite slightly lower oil prices, elevated levels should continue to support the energy surplus, the bank said.