Market View: Actual crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz is the core factor determining oil prices

⑴ Analysts point out that, compared to the escalation of military conflict, the physical flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable that determines the direction of oil prices. ⑵ Currently, shipping activity through the strait has already seen a noticeable decline, significantly increasing the risk of sharp two-way fluctuations in oil prices. If tanker passage continues and crude oil delivery remains resilient, the geopolitical risk premium is expected to dissipate quickly. ⑶ Analysts add that, in the event of a prolonged blockade of the shipping channel, attacks on oil tankers, or disruption at loading terminals, the logic behind oil price determination will fundamentally change. ⑷ Market data: WTI front-month crude oil futures rose by 2.7%, closing at $85.63 per barrel; Brent front-month crude oil futures also rose by 2.7%, closing at $90.50 per barrel.