WTI may reach an eleven-year high by the end of the year, but historical patterns and economic headwinds point to mean reversion.

(1) If West Texas Intermediate crude oil maintains a price of around $83 in late August until year-end, the 2026 year-end settlement price will reach the highest level since 2013. However, the historical mean reversion pattern and multiple fundamental headwinds suggest downward pressure is building. (2) The continuous decline in natural gas prices will weigh on crude oil from an energy price ratio perspective. Increasing domestic production and rising inventories in the United States are gradually improving the supply and demand balance sheet, and marginal easing on the supply side provides fundamental support for a price correction. (3) The peak of autumn maintenance at US refineries is approaching, resulting in seasonally weaker short-term crude oil processing demand, while global macroeconomic uncertainties create risks of downward revision in forward demand expectations. (4) With the midterm elections approaching, domestic political demands to combat inflation in the United States may translate into policies to increase supply or restrict exports, and the sensitivity of energy prices gives policymakers motivation to take measures to suppress oil prices. (5) Overall, the current price level has already priced in considerable geopolitical risk premium. Should there be an unexpected easing of the Hormuz situation or persistently weak demand-side data, the risk of oil prices giving back this year's gains and reverting to the long-term average cannot be ignored.